I’ve written in the past on the “vicious cycle” aspect of the real estate downturn and credit collapse.  Banks are frozen and can’t lend for commercial real estate, which hurts deal volume, which drives down prices, which further hurts the banks’ underlying collateral (the same banks mentioned at the start of that sentence – in [...]

Data derived from FDIC.gov.
Real estate related loan auctions for 2009 show that non-performing CRE debt traded at a premium to non-performing residential real estate debt.  Non-performing CRE debt sold for 37% of book value on average, while non-performing residential debt sold for 23% of book.

The thing that is striking though is that when both [...]

The moneyline from this Bloomberg interview: The Fed is going to stop purchasing MBS at “exactly the wrong time for the consumer.”  Is there a good time for the consumer?  Last time I checked, asking the consumer if there is a need for cheap mortgage money is similar to asking a college freshman whether the [...]

Further to my comparison of the housing market to an 8 year old on Redbull is this post from The Big Picture on residential mortgage rates.  If/when the Fed stops buying RMBS, supply-demand would dictate that mortgage rates would have to go up.

Another article on the embattled CityCenter.  This article does a pretty good job of breaking down the issues that the property has had with opening.  Some highlights:

“Thanks to City Center, MGM hasn’t made a profit for two years. The firm’s latest figures, for the final quarter of last year, show overall revenue fell 6% to [...]

Image via Wikipedia

Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders has been making its way around the blogosphere for the past couple of days.  In addition to the usual great folksy one liners (like “Don’t ask the barber if you need a haircut”), Buffett also provides some thoughts on the housing market.
"Within a year or so, residential housing [...]

Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders has been making its way around the blogosphere for the past couple of days.  In addition to the usual great folksy one liners (like “Don’t ask the barber if you need a haircut”), Buffett also provides some thoughts on the housing market.
"Within a year or so, residential housing problems should [...]

I’m not sure why, but I had a funny thought this afternoon and got to thinking what life would be like if the Costar management also ran Google.  Some possibilities:

Google searches would cost $1,000 each.  That might seem like a big price tag, but just think about all of the value you’re going to derive [...]

This is important for the Arizona solar industry (which I sort of follow as a hobby).  From the Arizona Republic.
Chandler officials expressed relief at the quick death of the "anti-solar" bill in the state Legislature.
H.B. 2701 was withdrawn Thursday by its sponsor, Rep. Debbie Lesko, R-Glendale, after the bill drew a storm of protests.
"It would [...]

In Part 1 of this series of posts, I outlined my general problem with overreliance on models and data to drive decisions in the market.  It’s not that I think models are useless, it’s that I think they have limited use which the model creators rarely recognize. 
I think the poster child example of overconfidence [...]