Ritholtz on Case/Shiller
Barry has some charts up on the Case/Shiller index, which looks like it showed real weakness for January.
I have a couple of issues with the Case/Shiller index. Actually, the issues aren’t with the index. My issues are with the way that MSM (so safe to exlude Ritholtz) disseminate and discuss the index.
First, the housing market is not made up only of prices. Prices are obviously important. But the market is also made up of volume. Volume tells you a lot about what will happen in the future to prices. I would much rather see a chart showing the volume of deals done, than the pricing. Volume tells you if Buyers are starting to get more comfortable with prices.
Secondly, would it be too much for all of the various articles about the housing market to show some graphs (again, Ritholtz shows the graphs, so this comment does not apply to Ritholtz)? Find an article on the housing market and there is a 1 in 10 chance that the publication has actually showed the graph. I don’t know how you can even understand where we are in the cycle without seeing the direction of the trend. And a number just doesn’t do it.
Third, as I commented on The Big Picture, I hate that the Case/Shiller index trails by two months. We live in a world where you should be able to get data almost instantly. I can literally see closings the very next day. So it would be nice to have the Case/Shiller index come out in less time. I want to know what is happening with housing today, not two months ago. I don’t care about post-Holiday sales anymore, so why would I care about January home prices.
I have some more thoughts on a comprehensive housing index that I will save for another post.
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